Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Big 12 Preview

Happy November to you all. The leaves have begun to fall and sadly it's now pitch black by 6pm. This is the dark period, when the weather gets cold and the sunshine goes away. But college hoops starts in a week, and I'll get to the Big 12 in a second. On the job front, I've actually had a couple of phone interviews in the last week, so I'm encouraged that activity is starting to pick up again.

Da Bears got it done in overtime against the Lions 19-13. Through 7 games, Da 05 Bears have given up fewer points than Da 85 Bears, that's how well the defense is playing. And how about the guy coming onto the field during the Bengals game. If he would've been dressed up as the Burger King, that would've been awesome. But the moron pleaded not guilty to charges of criminal trespassing and intoxication. Not guilty???? Dude, everyone saw you do it. I'd like to hear his alibi.

The Big 12 basketball season could go the same way as the football season. There's Texas and everybody else. No joke, the Big 12 is down this year. There's a distinct possibility that only 4 teams will make it to the Dance.

1. Texas. The Horns have the most returning talent and depth of anyone by far. Freshman of the Year Daniel Gibson is back to run the show, PJ Tucker is academically eligible, LaMarcus Aldridge is healthy, and Brad Buckman finally played to his potential last year. Gibson is a future NBA star with his ability to do everything, Tucker is the garbage man who scores and rebounds unbelievably well for a guy who's a generous 6'5. Tucker, Aldridge, and Buckman give Texas arguably the best frontcourt of anyone in the nation. Buckman really stepped up last year, averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds while shooting 53% from the floor. Off the bench comes Mike Williams, who started a number of games up front last year and Dion Dowell who is your typical swing player. The only question mark with this team is who will complement Gibson at the 2 guard. Kenton Paulino will start and he is a good shooter, but he is small and has trouble creating offense for himself. JC transfer JD Lewis was brought into help with shooting after high school recruit CJ Miles declared for the draft. If Texas can find another shooter, they could win it all.

2. Oklahoma. Up front, the Sooners can play with anyone. Taj Gray is a beast in the paint and Casey Bookout is the glue guy. When he's out on the floor, OU is at least 10 points better. Add in transfer Nate Carter who was Big West Freshman of the Year two years ago, and the Sooners' frontcourt is one of the best. But to be a good team, you need guards, and the Sooners don't have many. Terrell Everett is the exception. He has size, quickness, and 3 point range, and he'll be asked to do a lot. David Goodbold saw increased playing time at the end of the year and showed flashes, but that's it in terms of backcourt experience. In college hoops, you go as far as your backcourt takes you, which will really apply with OU.

3. Texas Tech. During my lifetime, I rate Bob Knight ahead of Dean Smith in terms of coaching. This might be different if Dean Smith had to go somewhere like Texas Tech to coach instead of staying at North Carolina where he could get anyone to play for him. Bob Knight doesn't get the elite recruits anymore, he's the college hoops version of Moneyball (which I finished the other day, great book). He doesn't care about your potential or physical attributes. He cares if you can produce or not, and if you can at a high level (at any level of play), he wants you. The coaching he did last year after losing his best player was phenomenal. That's why, despite losing 2 starters, I'm rating them this high because I think he can do it again, especially in a year when the league is down. Martin Zeno and Jarrius Jackson are back, along with Darryl Dora. Tech wil rely on their youth to contribute a lot, but you know Coach Knight will have them ready to go. He has a player in Zeno who is a great all-around player, Jackson is the point guard you want, he can score and dish.

4. Iowa St. The Cyclones have the best backcourt in the Big 12. Will Blalock and Curtis Stinson can get into the lane anytime they wish and they can finish. They are strong and get to the foul line. Rashon Clark is a big 2 guard playing the 3 who can score, which gives ISU 3 really good guards. The problem is they have nothing up front except freshmen and junior college transfers. Another weakness is outside shooting. Stinson and Blalock are great penetrators, but shoot less than 30% from 3, so they'll expect to see a lot of zone.

5. Colorado. The Buffs return everybody, and I mean everybody. Add in Dominique Coleman, who averaged 27/game in junior college in the backcourt, and you have a Big 12 sleeper. Richard Roby could have a big sophomore year after averaging 16 points, 5 boards, 45% shooting his freshman year. There isn't a lot of great talent here, but the Buffs have 7 seniors to go along with Roby and Coleman. When you have 7 guys who have been in the same situation for 4 years, that is a big advantage. Boulder is a tough place to play, very underrated.

6. Kansas. Yup, there is a chance that North Carolina and Kansas may not make the NCAA Tourney. With the departure of JR Giddens, this is a Bill Self team. Freshmen and sophomores will make up most of the rotation, with the exception of Christian Moody, the lone returning starter. Self showed he could recruit at Illinois, look for this team to get better as the year goes on. They'll be able to shoot, run, and defend, everyone finding their role. Self does a great job of recruiting players to fill a certain role.

7. Texas A&M. Coach Billy Gillispie did a great job in his 1st year, winning 21 games, taking his team to the verge of the NCAAs. The Aggies have enough players comning back to make another NCAA run. Acie Law is a solid guard, but he'll need some help. Joe Jones and Chris Walker give the Aggies two dependable forwards. It will be tough to replace 1st round pick Antoine Wright who was the Aggie program for 4 years. But attitudes are changed in College Station, they now expect instead of hoping to win, which will allow A&M to win games they shouldn't.

8. Oklahoma St. The only main guy left from last year's Sweet 16 team is JamesOn Curry. Is he mature enough as a sophomore to be the leader of the team? The incoming freshmen and JC transfers are strong and athletic, so look for the Cowboys to rely on defense to win games. And there's no better man-to-man defensive coach than Eddie Sutton. Can they score enough to win?

9. Missouri. Just 3 years ago, the Tigers were among the Elite 8. Now, they're just getting their head back above water after being the NCAA's whipping boy for the last year or so. The Tigers will get solid guard play from returners Jimmy McKinney and Jason Horton, but neither are go-to guys. Kevin Young provides experience at center, but he hasn't proven to be a consistent scorer. The Tigers don't have a lot of depth, so the freshmen will have to step in and contribute, along with A&M transfer Marcus Watkins, who has the potential to play like a Ricky Paulding.

10. Nebraska. Will Nebraska ever be good in basketball??? I'm beginning to think anything at or around .500 is a great year for them. This may be the most talented team Barry Collier team has had t here, but look at where they are in a down year in the Big 12. Joe McCray is a big-time player, but he's a big-time ballhog who only shot 40% last year. The Huskers are big, athletic, and have great young talent coming in, but it's Nebraska.

11. Kansas St. The Wildcats have good guards coming back in Clent Stewart and Lance Harris, but don't have much else, especially inside, w hich isn't good in the Big 12.

12. Baylor. Because of NCAA violations, the Bears only get to play their conference schedule. Their first game is at Texas Tech January 11th. It's unfortunate because Baylor actually has some proven talent, but with no non-league schedule, it'll be extremely tough for the Bears to have any success.

Next is the Pac-10, that's right, West Coast.

We didn't have many trick-or-treaters at the house last night. And the ones that did come weren't really dressed up. I think it's interesting that as a little kid, you get really excited to dress up, but once you reach junior high age, it's cool to just go around and get candy while not dressing up. But in college, it's back to dressing up in the most outrageous costume possible. It's funny how that works.

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