Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Final Four

Seriously, this Sanjaya thing needs to stop. He was absolutely terrible, and I'm not talking about his hair. I think the judges had it right, "What else can we say?" I would be ok if Haley got voted off, she's not even that attractive. Gina and Melinda were the best tonight. It was interesting that Melinda and Lakeisha, the two front-runners, went head-to-head with Donna Summer songs. Melinda outsang her, without a question. But the real winner, Gwen Stefani. I find her as sexy to begin with, but I really liked her without the red lipstick and the hair pulled back with some bangs. She was looking really good tonight.

So we're down to the last 4, and 3 of them happen to be mine. Let's see if I can break it down:
Georgetown v. Ohio St.

Last year they met in the 2nd round of the NCAAs at UD Arena in front of a pro-Buckeye crowd. Georgetown led for the last 37 minutes and won 70-52. Roy Hibbert scored 20 and grabbed 14 boards and Jeff Green scored 19 and grabbed 8 while adding 6 assists. Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp didn't score. For Ohio St., Jamar Butler scored 12 points while Jamar Butler and Ivan Harris were shut out, shooting 0/5.

This game will be a treat to watch because we get to see the big on big matchup. Both have gone up against big men this year, Hibbert matched up with Aaron Gray 3 times while Oden went against Florida's 1-2 punch of Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Georgetown can play at both ends, they can shoot, drive, pressure, and rebound. Sapp and Wallace are good all-around guards who can shoot and drive. Wallace can't be left alone or he'll hit the 3, which is the mistake Carolina made. Summers is a young wing player who can do a little bit of everything when he plays under control. Green is one of the top 5 all-around players in the country. He can do it all. Hibbert has become more athletic and is a bigger threat, if he can stay out of foul trouble. The Hoyas run the Princeton offense, but they do it to space the floor and dictate tempo. They take the 1st good shot available, but can hit the pullup 3 as the shot clock winds down. Defensively, they play physical man defense, but can play zone in order to keep Hibbert out of foul trouble. They are also the hottest team in basketball right now, winning the Big East regular season and tournament titles, and now own a comeback win vs. a good Carolina squad.

Ohio St. may be playing their best basketball of the year. I only say may because it may be a product of their draw, and they could have lost twice along the way. What makes Ohio St. tough is the presence of Oden, which allows OSU to play pressure man defense. OSU is quick enough to guard most players 1-on-1, which has saved them in games where they've shot the ball poorly. Offensively, they seem to be finding the right balance between Oden and the 3. Conley is so good with the ball, he's a magician when he runs the team. The keys are Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler and how well they play. Lewis has stepped up big-time in the tournament while Butler has been quieter, but still solid. David Lighty has emerged as a guy who can play at both ends and not just defensively. He played his best basketball of the year in the regional. Oden, is Oden. Intimidating at both ends, he gets better and better with each game. The key for OSU is to play inside-out. When the ball goes inside, either to Oden or the guards get dribble penetration, then comes back out, that's a good 3 point shot. When OSU starts passing, then takes the 3 off the pass, that's a bad shot, which is when OSU gets in trouble.

I think Georgetown will have to play some zone vs. OSU like they did vs. Carolina. OSU is quicker top-to-bottom than Carolina and I think Conley can take Wallace. But Georgetown's zone the last 10 minutes was effective in cutting off dribble penetration, forcing Carolina into jump shots. Once the Hoyas controlled the boards, it was over. The zone also keeps Hibbert out of foul trouble. OSU needs to push the tempo a little bit, but that's hard to do vs. Georgetown because they can play at any pace and can slow the tempo down. I like Georgetown because their depth is of higher quality and they'll force OSU into contested jump shots and limit their 2nd chance opportunities. In addition, OSU has no answer for Green and overall, they're more experienced.

Florida vs. UCLA

Last year, these two met in the National Championship. Florida dominated, led the last 37 minutes, and won 73-57. Joakim Noah had 16 points and 9 boards, Al Horford had 14 points and 7 boards, Corey Brewer had 11 points and 7 boards. Lee Humphrey hit 4 3s and Taurean Green had 8 assists. For UCLA, Aaron Afflalo was 3/10 for 10 points, Luc M Bah A Moute 3/9 for just 6 points. Florida put on a clinic, which was beautiful to watch.

Florida stepped their game up after the first 30 minutes at Tennessee. Green and Humphrey are shooting well and when they shoot well, Florida is almost impossible to beat. Brewer is doing his all-around thing and Noah is the emotional spark. But Horford is the man, he's unstoppable when he gets position down low. The challenge Florida has this weekend is to play with a sense of urgency, something not easy to do when you're the defending champs. They have to bear down and play 40 minutes worth of basketball. They won't be able to simply flip the switch.

UCLA may have been the most consistent team all year. Darren Collison is the straw that stirs UCLA's drink. When he takes care of the ball and hits outside shots, UCLA becomes awfully tough to beat. When he has a bad shooting night and/or plays out of control, UCLA struggles to score. Afflalo is the big-time player who makes big-time shots, M Bah A Moute was more aggressive offensively vs. Kansas, which UCLA needs, and Mata does the dirty work. Off the bench, Westbrook provides quality minutes at the point, and Aboya has proven to be solid on the glass. Then there's Josh Shipp, injured and unable to play in last year's championship. Shipp is the 3rd scorer every team needs, plus he can lock you down defensively.

Saying UCLA will be ready to play Saturday night is a huge understatement. But I think Florida will also. All year, Florida's best has been better than anyone else's best. Last year, despite scoring 18 points, Jordan Farmar was controlled by Taurean Green. Green controlled the game. Last year, UCLA had the bigger frontcourt, but Florida dominated. This year, Florida has the bigger frontcourt and the more experienced backcourt. Afflalo had a big-time game vs. a big time defender in Brandon Rush Saturday, but Brewer is even better. Brewer is quicker and longer than Rush, and I think he'll contain him again. UCLA will fight, but Florida is just better.

This has all the makings of the greatest Final 4 of all time.

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