Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Ready to go dancin

Opening thought: Tomorrow, Thursday, March 17th finally arrives. We will leave here at 9:30am, arriving in Indy around 11:30am. We will meet Brad at 11:45, locate our seats and settle in for an entertaining day of hoops.

Ok, my bracket is official, so I'll reveal the highlights:

First round:

  • Upsets: Ohio over Florida. Except for the year they made it to the finals, the Gators have been an NCAA dud under Billy Donovan, not making it past the 2nd round since 2000. Don't be fooled by their SEC tourney title, they aren't deep and are inconsistent offensively. The Bobcats are young, but athletic and won't be intimidated by the name on the jersey. The Gators aren't exceptional in one specific facet, which is why OU will hang, and beat the Gators. George Washington over Georgia Tech. Every year for 16 of the last 17 years, a 12 has beaten a 5, so this is my 12/5 upset. The Colonials are more athletic than Tech and have a more dominant post presence in Pops Mensah-Bonsu. As much as I like Tech, the Colonials present huge matchup problems.
  • I also like NC State, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Nevada, Iowa St., and UTEP to win, although none are really upsets in my book. The 1st round may be the easiest to pick; it's the 2nd round on that gets tricky.

Later rounds:

  • Sweet 16: Illinois, Alabama, Arizona, Oklahoma St., Washington, Louisville, Gonzaga, Wake Forest, N. Carolina, Villanova, Kansas, UConn, Duke, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Kentucky
  • Elite 8: Illinois, Oklahoma St., Washington, Wake Forest, Villanova, UConn, Duke, Oklahoma
  • Final 4: Illinois, Washington, Villanova, Oklahoma
  • Final: Illinois 65 Oklahoma 61

I like Villanova over UNC because of their offensive balance, inside and out. All of Nova's guards are offensive weapons, and Villanova can hang with the Tar Heels inside. Curtis Sumpter will have a big NCAA tourney. UNC is talented, but too inconsistent for my taste. I like Oklahoma because of their guard play and big men inside. They can match Kentucky's depth and will be too physical for Duke. I think Duke/Oklahoma will be a case where Duke doesn't have enough players, and will lose key guys to foul trouble. Washington got a great draw because all of the teams in Albuquerque are similar offensively, but UW plays the best defense, which will carry them through. Illinois is the best team in the country and got the best draw. They are too big for Oklahoma St., too strong defensively for Washington, and their guards are better than Oklahoma's.

If you can get great guard play, which is good shooting, good defense, and a minimal amount of turnovers, you will go far. If you have the presence inside that can get you the occasional easy basket, you will win the whole thing.

By no means will I be correct, my last great year was 2002 when I correctly had Maryland, Kansas, and Oklahoma in the final 4 with Maryland winning the whole thing. Hopefully I will relive my glory days of the 90s when I correctly had Arkansas and UCLA winning in 94 and 95 respectively (would've been 3 straight if Chris Webber hadn't called timeout in 93 to deprive Michigan of the title).

If you're watching any of the Indianapolis games, look up into the first few rows of the upper deck, that's where we'll be.

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