Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Final Four

Seriously, this Sanjaya thing needs to stop. He was absolutely terrible, and I'm not talking about his hair. I think the judges had it right, "What else can we say?" I would be ok if Haley got voted off, she's not even that attractive. Gina and Melinda were the best tonight. It was interesting that Melinda and Lakeisha, the two front-runners, went head-to-head with Donna Summer songs. Melinda outsang her, without a question. But the real winner, Gwen Stefani. I find her as sexy to begin with, but I really liked her without the red lipstick and the hair pulled back with some bangs. She was looking really good tonight.

So we're down to the last 4, and 3 of them happen to be mine. Let's see if I can break it down:
Georgetown v. Ohio St.

Last year they met in the 2nd round of the NCAAs at UD Arena in front of a pro-Buckeye crowd. Georgetown led for the last 37 minutes and won 70-52. Roy Hibbert scored 20 and grabbed 14 boards and Jeff Green scored 19 and grabbed 8 while adding 6 assists. Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp didn't score. For Ohio St., Jamar Butler scored 12 points while Jamar Butler and Ivan Harris were shut out, shooting 0/5.

This game will be a treat to watch because we get to see the big on big matchup. Both have gone up against big men this year, Hibbert matched up with Aaron Gray 3 times while Oden went against Florida's 1-2 punch of Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Georgetown can play at both ends, they can shoot, drive, pressure, and rebound. Sapp and Wallace are good all-around guards who can shoot and drive. Wallace can't be left alone or he'll hit the 3, which is the mistake Carolina made. Summers is a young wing player who can do a little bit of everything when he plays under control. Green is one of the top 5 all-around players in the country. He can do it all. Hibbert has become more athletic and is a bigger threat, if he can stay out of foul trouble. The Hoyas run the Princeton offense, but they do it to space the floor and dictate tempo. They take the 1st good shot available, but can hit the pullup 3 as the shot clock winds down. Defensively, they play physical man defense, but can play zone in order to keep Hibbert out of foul trouble. They are also the hottest team in basketball right now, winning the Big East regular season and tournament titles, and now own a comeback win vs. a good Carolina squad.

Ohio St. may be playing their best basketball of the year. I only say may because it may be a product of their draw, and they could have lost twice along the way. What makes Ohio St. tough is the presence of Oden, which allows OSU to play pressure man defense. OSU is quick enough to guard most players 1-on-1, which has saved them in games where they've shot the ball poorly. Offensively, they seem to be finding the right balance between Oden and the 3. Conley is so good with the ball, he's a magician when he runs the team. The keys are Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler and how well they play. Lewis has stepped up big-time in the tournament while Butler has been quieter, but still solid. David Lighty has emerged as a guy who can play at both ends and not just defensively. He played his best basketball of the year in the regional. Oden, is Oden. Intimidating at both ends, he gets better and better with each game. The key for OSU is to play inside-out. When the ball goes inside, either to Oden or the guards get dribble penetration, then comes back out, that's a good 3 point shot. When OSU starts passing, then takes the 3 off the pass, that's a bad shot, which is when OSU gets in trouble.

I think Georgetown will have to play some zone vs. OSU like they did vs. Carolina. OSU is quicker top-to-bottom than Carolina and I think Conley can take Wallace. But Georgetown's zone the last 10 minutes was effective in cutting off dribble penetration, forcing Carolina into jump shots. Once the Hoyas controlled the boards, it was over. The zone also keeps Hibbert out of foul trouble. OSU needs to push the tempo a little bit, but that's hard to do vs. Georgetown because they can play at any pace and can slow the tempo down. I like Georgetown because their depth is of higher quality and they'll force OSU into contested jump shots and limit their 2nd chance opportunities. In addition, OSU has no answer for Green and overall, they're more experienced.

Florida vs. UCLA

Last year, these two met in the National Championship. Florida dominated, led the last 37 minutes, and won 73-57. Joakim Noah had 16 points and 9 boards, Al Horford had 14 points and 7 boards, Corey Brewer had 11 points and 7 boards. Lee Humphrey hit 4 3s and Taurean Green had 8 assists. For UCLA, Aaron Afflalo was 3/10 for 10 points, Luc M Bah A Moute 3/9 for just 6 points. Florida put on a clinic, which was beautiful to watch.

Florida stepped their game up after the first 30 minutes at Tennessee. Green and Humphrey are shooting well and when they shoot well, Florida is almost impossible to beat. Brewer is doing his all-around thing and Noah is the emotional spark. But Horford is the man, he's unstoppable when he gets position down low. The challenge Florida has this weekend is to play with a sense of urgency, something not easy to do when you're the defending champs. They have to bear down and play 40 minutes worth of basketball. They won't be able to simply flip the switch.

UCLA may have been the most consistent team all year. Darren Collison is the straw that stirs UCLA's drink. When he takes care of the ball and hits outside shots, UCLA becomes awfully tough to beat. When he has a bad shooting night and/or plays out of control, UCLA struggles to score. Afflalo is the big-time player who makes big-time shots, M Bah A Moute was more aggressive offensively vs. Kansas, which UCLA needs, and Mata does the dirty work. Off the bench, Westbrook provides quality minutes at the point, and Aboya has proven to be solid on the glass. Then there's Josh Shipp, injured and unable to play in last year's championship. Shipp is the 3rd scorer every team needs, plus he can lock you down defensively.

Saying UCLA will be ready to play Saturday night is a huge understatement. But I think Florida will also. All year, Florida's best has been better than anyone else's best. Last year, despite scoring 18 points, Jordan Farmar was controlled by Taurean Green. Green controlled the game. Last year, UCLA had the bigger frontcourt, but Florida dominated. This year, Florida has the bigger frontcourt and the more experienced backcourt. Afflalo had a big-time game vs. a big time defender in Brandon Rush Saturday, but Brewer is even better. Brewer is quicker and longer than Rush, and I think he'll contain him again. UCLA will fight, but Florida is just better.

This has all the makings of the greatest Final 4 of all time.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

I Think Spring's Here

Despite accumulating snow Monday morning, the weather has warmed and I think spring has made it to Michigan. Fall ends here in early November and Winter follows until about now. I like it that daylight savings is earlier, I didn't have many clock issues. But anyway, I've been able to drive home with the window down, which is exciting. What wasn't exciting was the 20 minutes I spent in the bank drive-thru window this morning, which was followed by the disappointment of the driving range being closed!!!! I was all excited to use my new Taylor Mades for the first time, but no, even the driving range with mats is closed until April 1.

Last year, it was Kelly Clarkson who could be heard on every sort of radio station. This year, it isn't one artist, but one particular song. Nelly Furtado's "Say It Right" I think it's called. But I've heard this on radio stations that play everything from rap to R&B to top 20 (we know it's top 20 not top 40) to 70s/80s/90s/today mix to stations that play Delilah or John Tesh in the evening. Driving back to Ohio last weekend, I heard this song 4 times in a 30 minute span. Now don't get me wrong, whenver Nelly Furtado comes on, I have nice images of her backin it up, but I prefer a little variety in my music.

You know I don't like to talk politics, but how about the joke of a bill the House passed that is ending the war in Iraq, but isn't really ending it? And all that talk from the Democrats back in campaign season about ending earmarks on bills. Well, on this particular bill there were at least $20 billion in earmarks.

Well my bracket is still in play, surprise surprise. 25-7 in the 1st round, 11-5 in the 2nd, 5-3 in the 3rd, and 1-1 so far in the regional finals with Florida and Georgetown, my two finalists in play tomorrow. If Texas A&M got 1 rebound off those Memphis misses and Tennessee hadn't blown a 17 point halftime lead, I could be doing some serious damage. But anyway, it's been another good tournament, here are some thoughts:

  • First, what a great effort by Miami vs. Oregon. You probably didn't get to see it as it was the 5pm eastern game Friday, which is only available to local areas. Miami took Oregon's best 2 punches, 1 in each half, and were a 3 point shot from sending the game to overtime. If you haven't noticed, Oregon hasn't been seriously challenged since, except for the last minute vs. UNLV. Miami has a lot coming back next year, plus a great recruiting class and will probably be preseason favorites to win the MAC. Great job Redhawks!!!!
  • It has turned out the committee did a great job of seeding, as evidenced by the lack of upsets. From the 2nd round on, every game has been great to watch.
  • The Big 10 redeemed itself and showed some strength by going 5-1 in the 1st round (6-0 if Illinois didn't choke) and being competitive throughout the tournament. Michigan St. just ran out of gas vs. North Carolina and Purdue took Florida to the limit.
  • I thought the best basketball of the year was played in the Pac 10 and it's showed. UCLA is in the Final 4, Oregon gets their chance tomorrow, USC ran out of gas vs. Carolina but played well, and Washington St. should've at least made the Sweet 16, failing to put away Vanderbilt.
  • Do you want some reasons why the tournament shouldn't be expanded? I'll give you some: Stanford, Arkansas, and even Old Dominion weren't very competitive in their respective games and they were among the last at-large teams in.
  • I wonder if any of the people, including the pundits, who picked Oral Roberts to beat Washington St. even saw them play. Oral Roberts essentially has 2 guys who can score and that's it. Not a recipe for an upset.
  • How many lives does Ohio St. have left? First, I don't think Greg Oden's foul at the end of the Xavier game was intentional. Justin Cage has to hit those free throws and Xavier should've fouled after the miss. Second, Thad Matta hasn't exactly put on a coaching clinic this tournament, but his teams are resilient and always have a spurt in them. The Buckeyes are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Ron Lewis is really playing well and David Lighty had a great regional at both ends of the floor. He's starting to steal minutes from Daquean Cook. Mike Conley continues to be amazing with the ball in his hands. Oden though was the difference today vs. Memphis. Memphis had the tempo in their favor, but when Oden returned after picking up his 3rd foul, his presence made it enough of a half-court game that Memphis became uncomfortable and the tempo became more favorable to Ohio St. Ohio St. caught a break by not having to play Texas A&M in San Antonio. I think if you're an OSU fan, you want to see N. Carolina beat Georgetown tomorrow. OSU doesn't match up well with Georgetown as the Hoyas are just as quick and more physical at basically every position. Georgetown also handled the Buckeyes in last year's tournament with relative ease.
  • I was pretty confident UCLA would beat Kansas, which is why I took them. Kansas was playing "so well" according to the experts. But look at who they played. The Big 12 wasn't exactly a great conference, especially the Big 12 north. Niagara can't play defense, Kentucky can't beat anybody good, and SIU just didn't finish enough plays. But UCLA is tougher, stronger, and more experienced, and all that came through today. Kansas controlled the game for most of the 1st half, yet they were only up 4-6 points, despite all of UCLA's turnovers. Once UCLA stopped throwing the ball away, they took it to Kansas offensively, which got their defense going. Kansas wilted, missing a lot of close-in shots simply because they're not tough enough, physically or mentally, and that was their story all year. Suddenly a possible UCLA/Florida rematch has all the makings of a certain Duke/UNLV game 16 years ago. Look at all the similarities: UNLV and Florida won in dominating fashion and had essentially the same players coming back for a try at a repeat, but had to face the runner-up in the Final 4. No one gave Duke a shot vs. UNLV in their rematch and basically the same was said if UCLA and Florida were to cross paths in the Final 4.
  • Florida/Oregon is an intriguing matchup. Florida has the size advantage, but Oregon's guards have more talent. But that doesn't mean they'll outplay Florida's guards. Tajuan Porter had a big game vs. UNLV, can he produce against Green tomorrow? Who is Lee Humphrey going to guard? He can't possibly stay with Aaron Brooks. That assignment will probably go to Corey Brewer, leaving Humphrey with Bryce Taylor, but he's no slouch offensively either. If this is a half-court game, which I have to believe Florida will try and make it, the Gators will win. The Gators can play at any pace, but Oregon only has a chance if the pace is quicker. Florida needs to try and match their opponent's intensity at the start. The Gators are ready to play, but their opponent is more fired up because they're playing the defending champs, which is why Florida has been falling behind. Florida can't afford to do that from now on.
  • Carolina/Georgetown could be a classic. The way to beat Carolina is to turn them into a jump shooting team, which Michigan St. and USC did for about 30 minutes. But neither the Spartans and Trojans could match Carolina's depth, allowing Carolina to pull away at the end of each game. That won't happen with Georgetown. Carolina will have to make 3s to soften up the Hoya D. The key for Georgetown will be their ability to make shots, but more importantly take care of the ball. I think Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert can have big games for Georgetown, if they get the ball in places where they can be effective. If this game is tight, you have to like Georgetown's experience also. The crowd will be pro-Georgetown also, so that will help them as well. Carolina can't have Tyler Hansbrough get in foul trouble, the Heels must have him in a half-court game.

And another disappointment for the Duke women, losing to Rutgers in Greensboro after Lindsey Harding missed 2 free throws that could've won the game (1 would've sent it to OT). I caught the 2nd half and Duke was severly outcoached. Rutgers' pressure D and ball-control offense took Duke out of their game and made their team, with the exception of Allison Bales, tighten up. Duke's coach had a stunned and concerned look on her face throughout the 2nd half, a look you don't want to have in a tournament game.

Congratulations to Miami hockey. They upset top-seeded New Hampshire up in Manchester 2-1 to win their first ever NCAA hockey tournament game. Their reward: a chance to avenge last year's tournament loss to Boston College in the regional finals tomorrow.

I think I'm going to stay up and watch Peyton Manning on SNL, it could be funny.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

2007 NCAA Tournament

Well, I've done this the last couple of years and I wasn't about to start disappointing, despite the late hour. It won't be as extensive as I would like it, but I'll cover the basics.

First, let's take a look back at the beginning of the year to see how I did:

  • All 4 of my ACC picks made it, I just forgot about Maryland and Va. Tech among others.
  • St. Louis, ouch.
  • Syracuse should've been in over Arkansas. That pick was a joke. How does Arkansas from the really bad SEC West get an at-large?
  • Illinois was lucky to get in. I have them, Purdue, Michigan St., and Indiana all losing in the 1st round. The Big 10 was painful to watch all year. Illinois can't score. 41 points against Wisconsin?!?!
  • 35 of my preseason 65 made the cut. 14 of my preseason Sweet 16 made it (c'mon LSU and Alabama).

Now, a quick look at my thought process in picking my bracket, starting with the Midwest:

  • Florida's best is better than everyone else's best. They reappeared at the SEC Tournament, they're the team to beat.
  • Arizona plays no defense and has little team chemistry. Plus, Marcus Williams is thinking about the NBA.
  • Butler is not the Butler of November.
  • Notre Dame can score, but they can't stop anybody and you have to be able to stop people at this time of year.
  • Winthrop gets their 3rd chance at winning an NCAA game this year with their core group of players. Besides being able to shoot the 3 well, they can dump it inside to Craig Bradshaw for easy hoops.
  • Oregon's Pac-10 tournament run wasn't that impressive considering who they beat: Arizona (see above), Cal (emotionally drained from their win over UCLA), and USC (thanks in part to Bryce Taylor's 11/11). And remember last year, Iowa, Syracuse, and Kansas all had impressive conference tournament runs. Then they all lost in the 1st round.
  • UNLV isn't as good as the experts have been saying all week.
  • Wisconsin can't score without Brian Butch.

Florida beats Winthrop in the regional final. Notre Dame won't be able to stop Winthrop. Winthrop matches up perfectly with Oregon. Winthrop gets their rematch with Wisconsin and beats them because Brian Butch won't be there to score 17 points like he did in the 1st meeting and the game isn't in Madison.

Ok, to the West:

  • Kansas plays to the level of their competition. They struggle with the lesser teams, they play great vs. the great teams.
  • Kentucky hasn't beaten anyone good in my opinion.
  • Which Virginia Tech will show up? Lucky for them, they get offensively challenged Illinois.
  • Southern Illinois/Holy Cross will be close, but Holy Cross has trouble manufacturing points down the stretch in big games. I like SIU over Va. Tech, another rematch from earlier in the year when SIU beat Va. Tech at DisneyWorld.
  • Duke has trouble against athletic guards. VCU has athletic guards who can shoot and defend. I like VCU.
  • Pitt/Wright St. will be close until the last 10 minutes. Pitt has Final 4 talent, but they haven't shown it all year.
  • Indiana did great in their first game vs. Big Ten opponents. But during the 2nd go-round, teams started to catch on and they struggled. I like Gonzaga.
  • UCLA, despite the end of the year, has been consistent all year. Plus, they don't have to leave California.

UCLA beats Kansas in the regional final. Kansas has been very good defensively, but so has UCLA. UCLA has better point guard play and has a go-to guy for the end of the game, Kansas doesn't.

Ok, the East:

  • North Carolina has trouble against teams that make them shoot the 3 and can match their athleticism and depth.
  • I can't believe all of the people picking Michigan St. to win 2 games?!?!!? Neitzel will have to score 40 for them to beat Marquette.
  • Texas has trouble finishing games because of their young guards. Augustin and Abrams are good, but they dominate the ball too much at the end of games. They forget they have the nation's best player on their team. I thought about taking them over Carolina, but Carolina is deeper and will be able to penetrate their D. Texas will also struggle against New Mexico St. in the 1st round.
  • Washington St. will slow Vanderbilt and make them shoot jumpers. Vanderbilt's big wins were all at home.
  • Boston College is mentally tougher than Texas Tech. And they will give Georgetown fits in the 2nd round.
  • But Georgetown is hot, their only loss being at Syracuse's Senior Night, the Monday after they knocked off Pitt to win the Big East. They will make Carolina shoot 3s and can match their athleticism and depth.

Georgetown over Carolina in the regional final.

The South

  • Ohio St. is overrated. They're not shooting the ball well and they don't get Oden enough touches. They'll go as far as Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler take them.
  • Tennessee/Long Beach St. will be a good 1st round game. Tennessee will win, but closer than the experts think.
  • I really wanted to take Albany over Virginia because there's no way Virginia should be a 4. But Albany isn't that good, and Virginia's guards can neutralize Jamar Wilson. Albany got destroyed by UConn at the beginning of the year even though Albany had more returnees from the rematch in which Albany led for 30 minutes vs. the #1 team.
  • Texas A&M has become a really good offensive team, and if they play the kind of defense they're capable of, they can make a deep run, and I think they will.
  • Nevada is all reputation. Creighton is playing really well and Josh Dotzler is healthy. I like Creighton, they'll be more ready to play.
  • I like the way Memphis shares the ball, but they still don't have enough shooters. They turn the ball over too much for my liking also.

Texas A&M over Tennessee in the regional final. OSU/Tennessee: another rematch, but I think Tennessee is playing better than they were at the time of the first meeting. Plus, the game isn't in Columbus, and you have to think Tennessee, despite being a bad free throw shooting team, will do better than 5/11. The Buckeyes have had trouble scoring, I think Tennessee gets them. Texas A&M will have a homecourt advantage in San Antonio. They'll play some D and be able to score because Tennessee isn't a great defensive team. Plus, Acie Law will do his thing in the last 10 minutes.

Florida over UCLA. Florida only loses when their guards are forced into turnovers and UCLA's guards won't be able to do that.

Georgetown over Texas A&M. Georgetown is hot and they can beat A&M at their own game.

Florida over Georgetown 67-61. Georgetown was very close to knocking them out last year, and the Hoyas are better this year than last. But Florida's best is still unbeatable and I think they'll get it done. Watching the SEC Tournament, the fire is back in their eyes and they want it. And they're good enough to do it.

I wish I could write more, but I can't. Enjoy the games!!!!

And how about those Miami Redhawks, I can't forget?!?! Dancing in style after that Doug Penno Saturday night deposit after the glass. That's how to do it fellas. They're going to have trouble slowing Oregon down, but nothing's impossible with the Professor, Charlie Coles at the helm.

 
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